S&P 500 / Gold

Selected range · January 1871 — June 2026

1871Drag the handles to resize · drag the selection to move it2026

About this chart

The S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio compares the level of the U.S. stock market with the price of gold.

The numerator is the monthly S&P 500 index level. The denominator is the monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce.

The ratio shows the relative performance of large U.S. equities and gold over time.

The ratio rises when the S&P 500 increases faster than gold. It can also rise when gold prices decline while the stock market remains stable or declines more slowly.

A higher ratio means that U.S. equities are relatively strong compared with gold. This may occur during periods of strong economic growth, rising corporate earnings, increasing equity valuations, lower demand for defensive assets, or greater investor confidence.

The ratio falls when gold rises faster than the S&P 500 or when equities weaken relative to gold.

A lower ratio means that gold is relatively strong compared with U.S. equities. This may occur during periods of economic uncertainty, negative real interest rates, inflation concerns, currency weakness, geopolitical risk, or declining stock-market valuations.

Because the S&P 500 is an index and gold is quoted in U.S. dollars per troy ounce, the ratio is not a literal measure of how many ounces of gold are required to purchase the underlying companies in the index.

The absolute ratio level is affected by the construction and base level of the S&P 500 index. Its primary purpose is to show how the relationship between equities and gold has changed over time.

The chart compares the S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio with an estimated long-term exponential trend.

A deviation of 0% means that the ratio is equal to its estimated trend.

A positive deviation means that the S&P 500 is relatively stronger than gold compared with the model’s long-term trend.

A negative deviation means that gold is relatively stronger than the S&P 500 compared with the model’s long-term trend.

The standard-deviation zones show whether the current deviation is relatively common or historically unusual. Values farther above or below 0% represent less common historical relationships between U.S. equities and gold.

The ratio can provide long-term context about changing preferences between productive financial assets and gold as a monetary or defensive asset. It should not be interpreted as a direct valuation measure or a market-timing signal.

Limitations

  • The model compares the S&P 500 index level with the gold price and therefore does not measure total investment returns for either asset.
  • The S&P 500 input excludes reinvested dividends, while the gold series excludes storage costs, transaction costs, and investment-product fees.
  • Before 1960, the gold dataset repeats annual average prices across each month, which reduces genuine monthly variation in the early part of the series.
  • Gold-market structures and monetary arrangements have changed substantially over the sample period, limiting direct comparisons across different historical regimes.
  • The exponential trend and standard-deviation zones depend on the selected sample period and regression specification.
  • The ratio is influenced by equity valuations, real interest rates, inflation expectations, currency movements, central-bank activity, and demand for defensive assets.
  • An unusually high or low reading can persist for a long time and should not be interpreted as a precise fair-value estimate or a market-timing signal.

Methodology

The S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio is calculated by dividing the monthly S&P 500 index level by the monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce.

S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio
S&P 500 index level ÷ Gold price
Deviation
(S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio − trend value) ÷ trend value × 100
Z-score
current percentage deviation ÷ standard deviation of historical percentage deviations

The model applies a natural logarithm to the S&P 500-to-Gold Ratio and fits the logged values to a linear monthly time trend. The fitted log values are converted back into normal ratio values using the exponential function. This produces the model’s long-term exponential trend. The percentage deviation measures how far each ratio observation is above or below the corresponding trend value. The standard deviation of the full historical percentage-deviation series is used to create the ±1σ, ±2σ and ±3σ zones around 0%. The z-score divides the current percentage deviation by that standard deviation, expressing the current observation in standardized historical units. The model uses monthly observations beginning in January 1871 and continues through June 2026 in the current workbook. For observations before 1960, the gold dataset repeats each annual average price across all twelve months because true monthly gold-price observations are unavailable. From 1960 onward, the series is based on monthly World Bank Commodity Markets data.

Data sources

  • Monthly U.S. stock-market index level used as the equity component of the ratio

    Range: January 1871 to the latest available observation used by the model

    Source: DataHub, Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Data; https://datahub.io/core/s-and-p-500

  • Monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce

    Range: January 1871 to the latest available observation used by the model

    Source: DataHub, Gold Prices; https://datahub.io/core/gold-prices

For educational use only. This chart shows historical market relationships and valuation context. It is not investment advice, a trading signal, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Historical patterns do not guarantee future results.