Oil / Gold
Selected range · January 1960 — June 2026
About this chart
The Oil-to-Gold Ratio compares the price of crude oil with the price of gold.
Oil and gold respond to different parts of the global economy. Oil is a major industrial and energy commodity whose price is influenced by economic activity, transportation demand, production decisions, inventories, geopolitical events, and supply disruptions.
Gold is influenced more strongly by investment demand, real interest rates, inflation expectations, currency movements, central-bank activity, and demand for assets perceived as stores of value.
The ratio rises when oil becomes more expensive relative to gold. This can happen because oil prices increase, gold prices fall, or both occur at the same time.
A higher ratio generally means that oil is relatively stronger than gold. This may be associated with stronger energy demand, tighter oil supply, greater confidence in economic activity, or reduced demand for defensive assets.
The ratio falls when gold becomes more expensive relative to oil. This can happen because oil prices decline, gold prices rise, or both occur together.
A lower ratio generally means that gold is relatively stronger than oil. This may be associated with weaker energy demand, falling economic expectations, an oil-supply surplus, geopolitical uncertainty, or stronger demand for gold.
Because oil is measured in dollars per barrel and gold in dollars per troy ounce, the ratio does not represent a direct physical exchange relationship. Its main purpose is to show how the relative market prices of the two commodities change over time.
The chart compares the Oil-to-Gold Ratio with its historical average.
A reading above the historical average means that oil is relatively expensive compared with gold versus the full historical sample.
A reading below the historical average means that gold is relatively expensive compared with oil.
The deviation line expresses how far the current ratio is above or below its historical average as a percentage.
A deviation of 0% means that the ratio is equal to its historical average.
A positive deviation means that oil is relatively stronger than gold compared with the historical average.
A negative deviation means that gold is relatively stronger than oil compared with the historical average.
The standard-deviation zones show whether the current relationship is relatively common or historically unusual. Values farther from the average represent less common historical relationships between oil and gold.
The ratio can provide useful context about the balance between growth-sensitive energy prices and defensive demand for gold. It should not be interpreted as a direct measure of economic growth, a precise recession indicator, or an investment signal.
Limitations
- The ratio compares spot or reference prices and does not include storage costs, transaction costs, financing costs, futures-roll effects, or investment-product fees.
- The model therefore does not measure the total returns of investable oil and gold products.
- Oil is driven mainly by global growth, energy demand, production decisions, inventories, and geopolitical supply risks, while gold is influenced more by real interest rates, currencies, inflation expectations, and defensive demand.
- The oil input may represent a composite crude benchmark rather than one specific grade, which can mask differences between regional oil markets.
- The relationship can change sharply during supply disruptions, recessions, monetary regime shifts, or periods of unusual currency volatility.
- The historical average and standard-deviation zones depend on the selected sample period and may be influenced by extreme commodity-market episodes.
- An unusually high or low reading can persist and should not be interpreted as a precise fair-value estimate or a market-timing signal.
Methodology
The Oil-to-Gold Ratio is calculated by dividing the monthly crude-oil price by the monthly gold price.
The model calculates the arithmetic historical average of the full monthly Oil-to-Gold Ratio series. The standard deviation of the percentage-deviation series is used to create the ±1σ, ±2σ and ±3σ zones around 0%. The percentage deviation measures how far the current ratio is above or below the historical average. The z-score standardizes that deviation relative to the historical variation in the percentage-deviation series. The model uses monthly observations beginning in January 1960.
Data sources
Monthly average crude-oil price in U.S. dollars per barrel
Range: January 1960 to the latest available observation
Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Crude oil, average; https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce
Range: January 1960 to the latest available observation
Source: DataHub, Gold Prices, based on historical records compiled by Timothy Green and World Bank Commodity Markets data; https://datahub.io/core/gold-prices