Home Prices / Gold
Selected range · January 1964 — April 2026
About this chart
The Home-Prices-to-Gold Ratio compares the level of U.S. home prices with the price of gold.
Housing and gold respond to different economic forces. Home prices are influenced by household income, mortgage rates, credit availability, housing supply, construction costs, population trends, and local demand.
Gold is influenced more strongly by real interest rates, inflation expectations, currency movements, central-bank demand, investor sentiment, and demand for assets perceived as stores of value.
The ratio rises when U.S. home prices increase relative to gold. This can happen because home prices rise, gold prices fall, or both occur at the same time.
A higher ratio means that the U.S. home-price index is relatively strong compared with gold. It may be associated with strong housing demand, easier credit conditions, rising household confidence, or periods when gold performs more weakly.
The ratio falls when gold becomes more expensive relative to U.S. home prices. This may happen because gold prices rise, home prices weaken, or both occur together.
A lower ratio means that gold is relatively strong compared with the housing market. It may be associated with weaker housing conditions, higher mortgage costs, tighter credit, economic uncertainty, or stronger demand for gold.
Because the home-price input is an index rather than the price of a specific property, the ratio does not show how many ounces of gold are required to purchase an average U.S. home. It is a relative historical indicator that compares changes in a national housing index with changes in the gold price.
The chart compares the Home-Prices-to-Gold Ratio with its arithmetic historical average.
A reading above the historical average means that U.S. home prices are relatively elevated compared with gold versus the full historical sample.
A reading below the historical average means that gold is relatively elevated compared with U.S. home prices.
The deviation line expresses how far the current ratio is above or below its historical average as a percentage.
A deviation of 0% means that the ratio is equal to its historical average.
A positive deviation means that home prices are relatively stronger than gold compared with the historical average.
A negative deviation means that gold is relatively stronger than home prices compared with the historical average.
The standard-deviation zones show whether the current relationship is relatively common or historically unusual. Values farther from 0% represent less common historical relationships between U.S. home prices and gold.
The ratio can provide long-term context about the relative performance of residential property and gold. It should not be interpreted as a precise housing valuation model, a measure of housing affordability, or an investment signal.
Limitations
- Both inputs are price indices or reference prices rather than directly comparable asset values, so the ratio is a relative historical measure rather than a literal property-to-gold exchange rate.
- The home-price index excludes rental income, property expenses, financing costs, and transaction costs, while the gold series excludes storage costs, transaction costs, and investment-product fees.
- The model therefore does not compare the total returns of residential real estate and gold.
- National home-price data can conceal substantial differences across regions, cities, and property types, while gold prices reflect a global market quoted in U.S. dollars.
- The ratio can be influenced by mortgage conditions, housing supply, inflation expectations, real interest rates, currency movements, and demand for defensive assets.
- The historical average or trend and the standard-deviation zones depend on the selected sample period and model specification.
- An unusually high or low reading can persist and should not be interpreted as a complete housing-valuation measure, a precise fair-value estimate, or a market-timing signal.
Methodology
The Home-Prices-to-Gold Ratio is calculated by dividing the monthly U.S. home-price index by the monthly gold price.
The model calculates the arithmetic historical average of the full monthly Home-Prices-to-Gold Ratio series. The percentage deviation measures how far the current ratio is above or below that historical average. The standard deviation of the percentage-deviation series is used to create the ±1σ, ±2σ and ±3σ zones around 0%. The z-score standardizes the current deviation relative to the historical variation in the percentage-deviation series. The model uses monthly observations beginning in January 1964.
Data sources
Monthly U.S. home-price index
Range: January 1964 to the latest available observation
Source: Robert J. Shiller, U.S. Home Prices historical data; https://shillerdata.com/
Monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce
Range: January 1964 to the latest available observation
Source: DataHub, Gold Prices, based on historical records compiled by Timothy Green and World Bank Commodity Markets data; https://datahub.io/core/gold-prices