Copper / Gold
Selected range · January 1960 — June 2026
About this chart
The Copper–Gold Ratio compares the price of copper with the price of gold.
Copper and gold often respond differently to economic conditions. Copper is widely used in construction, manufacturing, electrical equipment, transportation, and infrastructure. Demand for copper therefore tends to be sensitive to industrial activity and expectations about economic growth.
Gold has a different role. Although it also has industrial uses, its price is strongly influenced by investment demand, inflation expectations, interest rates, currency movements, and demand for assets perceived as stores of value.
The ratio rises when copper becomes more expensive relative to gold. This may happen because copper prices are rising, gold prices are falling, or both are occurring at the same time.
A higher ratio is commonly associated with stronger demand for industrial commodities and greater confidence in economic activity. It suggests that copper is performing more strongly than gold.
The ratio falls when gold becomes more expensive relative to copper. This can result from weaker copper prices, stronger gold prices, or a combination of both.
A lower ratio is often associated with weaker industrial expectations, more cautious investor sentiment, or stronger demand for gold relative to growth-sensitive commodities.
The absolute level of the ratio is not especially meaningful on its own because copper and gold are quoted using different physical units. The model therefore focuses on how the ratio changes over time and how far it is positioned from its estimated long-term trend.
The deviation line shows how far the current Copper–Gold Ratio is above or below that trend.
A deviation of 0% means that the ratio is equal to its estimated trend.
A positive deviation means that copper is relatively stronger than the model’s long-term trend would suggest.
A negative deviation means that gold is relatively stronger than copper compared with the model’s long-term trend.
The standard-deviation zones show whether the current deviation is relatively common or historically unusual. Values farther above the trend may be described as historically elevated, while values farther below the trend may be described as historically depressed.
The ratio can provide useful context about market expectations and the balance between growth-sensitive and defensive assets. However, it should not be treated as a direct measure of economic growth, a precise recession forecast, or an investment signal.
Limitations
- The ratio compares spot or reference prices and does not include storage costs, transaction costs, financing costs, or investment-product fees.
- The model therefore does not measure the total returns of investable copper and gold products.
- Copper is driven largely by industrial activity and construction demand, while gold is influenced more by monetary conditions, real interest rates, currencies, and defensive demand.
- Copper prices can be highly sensitive to global growth, especially developments in major consuming economies, while gold may strengthen during periods of economic stress.
- Changes in mining supply, inventories, recycling, exchange rates, trade policy, and geopolitical conditions can materially affect the relationship.
- The historical average and standard-deviation zones depend on the selected sample period and may be influenced by extreme commodity-market episodes.
- An unusually high or low reading can persist and should not be interpreted as a precise fair-value estimate or a market-timing signal.
Methodology
The Copper–Gold Ratio is calculated by dividing the monthly copper price by the monthly gold price. The natural logarithm of the ratio is then fitted to a linear monthly time trend, and converting the fitted result back into normal values creates an exponential long-term trend.
The standard deviation of the full deviation series is used to create the ±1σ, ±2σ and ±3σ historical zones. The model uses monthly observations beginning in January 1960.
Data sources
Monthly copper price in U.S. dollars per metric ton
Range: January 1960 to the latest available observation
Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Copper; https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Monthly gold price in U.S. dollars per troy ounce
Range: January 1960 to the latest available observation
Source: DataHub, Gold Prices, based on historical records compiled by Timothy Green and World Bank Commodity Markets data; https://datahub.io/core/gold-prices